Research Reports
Thematic Area: Trade, Investment, and Resilient Supply Chains
Recent Developments in G20 Merchandise Trade
Introduction
Total global merchandise exports and imports in 2023 amounted to USD 23.81 trillion and USD 24.25 trillion respectively. Trade decelerated in 2023 from its value in 2022 with exports falling by 4.3% and imports falling by 5.4%1 . The year 2024, however, began positively with exports in January 2024 expanding by 1.8% over the previous year. Though exports contracted in March 2024 by -6.1% and in June 2024 by -0.4%, the growth rate remained positive till October 2024 (latest available data). Growth in exports peaked in July 2024 with a growth rate of 6.4%2 .
Figure A: Monthly Trend in Global Exports (Year-on-Year Change)
Source: ITC Trade Map and national sources (2024); Accessed on 16 January 20253
However, global growth is expected to remain subdued, especially from a medium to long term period perspective for the G20 economies, according to IMF’s G20 Report on Strong, Sustainable, Balanced, and Inclusive Growth. The report highlights muted growth in total factor productivity, large public debt, disproportionate greenhouse gas emissions as some of the factors contributing to the region’s weak growth prospects in the medium term4
The World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects, January 2025, expects the global economy to stabilize at 2.7% in 2025-26 driven by trade policy uncertainty in North America, geopolitical headwinds, and climate induced disasters5 .